What would be the chances of Pakistan launching a nuclear strike against India? And what would be steps taken by India and other world powers after such a drastic step?
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I am sure that even the Pakistani military is not stupid enough to launch nuclear attacks but as an Indian living near a rogue nation allow me to be less than 100% confident.
Pakistan originated from the assumption that India as a secular state is bound to fail and is increasingly feeling that we have proved that very assumption wrong. Pakistan is in a mess economically and culturally. The indoctrinated jihadists are running amok in the state and India seems poised to join the ranks as a superpower in the near future. Strategically though it is covertly and overtly supported by China and the USA. USA, as it needs to have 'allies', even unreliable ones like Pakistan, in its middle East policy, cannot be relied upon to support India although it might make efforts to broker a peace. China fearing India's rise might use Pakistan as a proxy similar to the USA use of Afghanistan against the USSR in the 70s and 80s.
Nationalistic pride aside, according to Pakistan surges ahead of India in nuclear stockpile: Report - The Times of India
Pakistan has a few more nuclear weapons than India and China has many more. So flattening out Pakistan without sustaining tremendous loss on our side is out of the question. Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) is no laughing matter and blind nationalism should not be involved with it.
Moreover, it will be the poor Pakistani public who has been suffering under their inept governments and disproportionately powerful military that would bear the brunt. The actual culprits, ie the military heads would be hidden in bunkers and already planning to make a cry for help in the UN and project themselves as a victim just like their cries of being victims of terrorists that they created and trained. (I have seen a video
Link: https://youtu.be/Z__lyS-wI7c
of a former ISI head going on record in a British television show terming the countless Pakistani civilians killed by terrorists that they trained as collateral damage and who seemed convinced that their policies could not have gone any better. Hence I would not be surprised if they really do take India down with their own citizens.)
Given the open threats of nuclear warheads given by people like Musharraf over the seemingly straightforward issue of tackling terrorist groups across the border, I wouldn't bet on the sanity of the Pakistani high command. Fighting a losing battle with time, the Pakistani establishment might try to launch a suicidal attack on India.
What I would like to know is what are the defenses that we have against that kind of a situation? Are there any defenses available with other countries that may disable the warheads in air and will they be deployed in India's or even Pakistan's defense? Can embargoes on the offending party/parties be counted upon and which nations would be involved? Will the UN step in and what good might that do? What would the fallout of such a war be, what will we lose and would there be any chance of rebuilding our possibly lost economy?
Pakistan originated from the assumption that India as a secular state is bound to fail and is increasingly feeling that we have proved that very assumption wrong. Pakistan is in a mess economically and culturally. The indoctrinated jihadists are running amok in the state and India seems poised to join the ranks as a superpower in the near future. Strategically though it is covertly and overtly supported by China and the USA. USA, as it needs to have 'allies', even unreliable ones like Pakistan, in its middle East policy, cannot be relied upon to support India although it might make efforts to broker a peace. China fearing India's rise might use Pakistan as a proxy similar to the USA use of Afghanistan against the USSR in the 70s and 80s.
Nationalistic pride aside, according to Pakistan surges ahead of India in nuclear stockpile: Report - The Times of India
Pakistan has a few more nuclear weapons than India and China has many more. So flattening out Pakistan without sustaining tremendous loss on our side is out of the question. Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) is no laughing matter and blind nationalism should not be involved with it.
Moreover, it will be the poor Pakistani public who has been suffering under their inept governments and disproportionately powerful military that would bear the brunt. The actual culprits, ie the military heads would be hidden in bunkers and already planning to make a cry for help in the UN and project themselves as a victim just like their cries of being victims of terrorists that they created and trained. (I have seen a video
of a former ISI head going on record in a British television show terming the countless Pakistani civilians killed by terrorists that they trained as collateral damage and who seemed convinced that their policies could not have gone any better. Hence I would not be surprised if they really do take India down with their own citizens.)
Given the open threats of nuclear warheads given by people like Musharraf over the seemingly straightforward issue of tackling terrorist groups across the border, I wouldn't bet on the sanity of the Pakistani high command. Fighting a losing battle with time, the Pakistani establishment might try to launch a suicidal attack on India.
What I would like to know is what are the defenses that we have against that kind of a situation? Are there any defenses available with other countries that may disable the warheads in air and will they be deployed in India's or even Pakistan's defense? Can embargoes on the offending party/parties be counted upon and which nations would be involved? Will the UN step in and what good might that do? What would the fallout of such a war be, what will we lose and would there be any chance of rebuilding our possibly lost economy?
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Answered By: Pratik Dash,
Almost zero. I will Divide my answer into Three points to answer all the questions raised.
1. Second Strike Capability
Pakistan sure rattles her missiles a lot, but is very unlikely that they would consider a nuclear assault, tactical or strategic, on India because Pakistan knows that India has a serious second strike capability.
In nuclear strategy, a second-strike capability is a country's assured ability to respond to a nuclear attack with powerful nuclear retaliation against the attacker.
In layman terms it means that means that Even if Pakistan somehow does the impossible and destroys all Indian missile silos and Missile launch sites with a massive and accurate preemptive nuclear strike without Indian Fighter Jets first blowing their missiles to crap on the launchpad, India would still possess a formidable nuclear retaliation.
This primarily comes in the form of nuclear tipped - submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) .
Nuclear submarines are almost invisible once they dive in. They can stay underwater for months on end, making them invisible to aerial and satellite surveillance. They can carry powerful ballistic missiles armed with nuclear warheads. India's latest nuclear submarine The Arihant is all set to receive K-15 missiles which can carry nuclear warheads and strike up to 700 kms in enemy territory. We are also developing the K-4 missile which extends the attack radius to 3000 km bringing almost all the Pakistani cities under strike range. The Brahmos Supersonic Ramjet Cruise missile is being adapted to be used from a submerged platform. This will have a short range, but will be able to evade almost any missile defense system in existence due to it's massive speed in excess of Mach 2.8 . With the Brahmos in our Arsenal, we can strike fast before any defense can be conducted. We are developing a significantly faster version of this missile and tests will commence from 2017.
In case of a massive first strike by Pakistan, a nuclear submarine like Arihant can slip in near Pakistan silently and lay waste to Karachi and other cities. Pakistan imports lots of arms, ammunition and oil through Karachi, so a decisive strike on Karachi would totally cripple Pakistan and bring them to their knees. This was proved in 1971 after the Indian navy achieved Naval Superiority and Damaged the Karachi Port in the brilliant Operation Trident dealing a massive blow to Pakistan and ultimately was one of the major factors which brought them to the table to discuss terms.
We are also developing missiles which can be launched from the air and can carried by strike fighters or light bombers. In case of a nuclear attack by Pakistan, IAF aircraft operating from South or East India(Pakistani missiles effectively cover most of North India only) can easily strike and destroy Pakistani bases and cities. Longer Range standoff missiles are being developed which would give Our aircraft the ability to strike at Pakistani cities without crossing the border allowing them to strike without engaging the Pakistani Air defense. Basically Standoff missiles are the missiles or bombs which may be launched at a distance sufficient to allow attacking personnel to evade defensive fire from the target area. The Brahmos Cruise Missile is being adapted right now to be used by Aircraft. Traveling at supersonic speeds, it can evade Pakistani Defenses, if any with ease.
This combined with our nuclear submarines and missile silos completes a comprehensive nuclear triad of Defense. In case of a nuclear attack however small we can respond massively and effectively from land, air and sea, completely overwhelming the opponent's defenses and laying waste to their cities.
A nuclear assault by Pakistan may destroy some parts of India and kill all of her leaders, but the combined Indian counterstrike by the Navy, army and airforce would turn all of Pakistan into a boiling nuclear wasteland devoid of life. Indian Nuclear Policy states that India will never ever use it's Nuclear weapons to strike first. However any Nuclear assault however small on India from Pakistan would invite a complete nuclear response from our side which will wipe Pakistan off the map.
2. Ballistic Missile Shield
You also mention if there are any ways to protect India from a nuclear strike. The Indian Government for many years has been developing a Ballistic Missile Shield to counter the threats from China and Pakistan.
Tests have been carried out and the Shield is quite effective. It is not yet operational but thanks to the successful tests it would be implemented soon.
Both missiles will have to work in tandem to achieve a high probability of knocking out the enemy missile. Most of Pakistan's missiles are pretty obsolete, so the Shield can effectively stop a lot of the Pakistani ballistic missiles with ease. Further Developments are being made and a new Prithvi Missile which is faster and reaches higher is in development. The US has also agreed to cooperate with India. The US has a very effective Missile defense Shield with the Patriot Interceptor Missile system. Hopefully the US will share some of the know how of Anti-Ballistic missiles with us helping us develop a even better Missile shield.
The laser system will be more affordable than Interceptor missiles. A single Interceptor missile costs almost 5-6 crore. Also advanced smart missiles can evade Interceptors by confusing them with decoy missiles. To successfully strike a enemy missile down you need to first at least two long range interceptor missiles, in addition tobthis you need to keep a short range missile ready just in case, the other two fail. This adds up to a very high cost.
A laser system will consume electricity to fire and will be drastically cheaper at just probably Rs 5000 a shot. Also Lasers travel at the speed of light so countermeasures won't work that well against it. It will be slightly more expensive to build them, but their operating costs will be low and their effectiveness will be more with less reaction times.
3. UN Embargoes,Sanctions and Military Intervention
A Pakistani First strike will also invoke a UN embargo and Harsh Sanctions on Pakistan. Pakistan depends on the world market for most of it's oil and a embargo on Pakistan will lead to the Pakistani army being stopped dead on it's tracks. Also without food and other essential Imports, Public anger in Pakistan may lead to violent strikes, Mutinies and coups against the government in Power.
The UN may also consider a Full scale Military Intervention in Pakistan to stop any further attacks. The US is closer to India nowadays and they are frustrated with Pakistan being unable to act decisively on terrorist camps on it's soil. The US would jump at a chance to destroy these camps and would almost certainly intervene militarily. Pakistan would be crushed in a matter of days.
What about China?
China is anything but stupid. Supporting Pakistan to conduct a nuclear attack on India will result in a crisis of an unprecedented nature for China. To Understand better consider an analogy-
A Man commits the murder of an innocent man. You participate in it by encouraging him . The police would book you as an accomplice to murder and put you in the locker with the Murderer. You would lose all your reputation for your friend.
China here is the accomplice, Pakistan the Murderer, India the victim and the UN is the Police. They will book China as a Rogue state and cancel dealings with China and impose Sanctions. All the ASEAN Countries(Association of South East Asian Nations) will jump on the US bandwagon to throw out China from the World Economy. The Chinese Economy will be Blown to shreds. As Inflation increases over the falling Yuan, The Army would mutiny and Strikes would break out.
The ASEAN Countries
The West will suffer for a while without cheap Chinese goods but soon South Korea and the ASEAN Countries will take up the role of China . As China rots, The South east Asian countries Prosper hugely.
Also, a Nuclear war in it's neighborhood, will result in most of Western china being covered in Radioactive dust. Most people would have to be evacuated placing a huge toll on it's economy. It may also lead to a localized Nuclear Winter Situation, in which the Dust will Block out the Sun, resulting in Crops failing and Temperatures rapidly falling, resulting in a Harsh Cold Climate across most of China and South East Asia. This would be totally unacceptable for China at any cost.
Another Reason why China will not help Pakistan, is the Threat of Escalating a Local Nuclear war to a Global One. Basically this scenario will suck in bigger Powers like The US, NATO and Russia leading to an unpleasant domino effect and Start WW3. This is Exactly how WW1 started and such a situation is totally plausible, Only this Time with Nuclear weapons. This will Obviously lead to Doomsday and Armageddon for the entire world.
Due to these Reasons, I am Certain that China will stay out of the UN's way and will not support Pakistan. If Pakistan goes Rogue , I am Actually say with Confidence that China will back the UN.
History Suggests that in the murky world of Geopolitics "You are a friend only till you become a liability" .
Conclusion
I am certain of the fact that Pakistan's Generals know all about these scenarios and hence the only thing they can do is rattle their missiles in anger knowing that India would win both a conventional and a nuclear war. Hence I think it is quite Unlikely that Pakistan would choose to begin a nuclear war with India. Even if she does, God Forbid, India and the world will turn Pakistan into a barren wasteland straight out of a Mad Max Movie.
In short, They may start the war, but we shall end it.
References-https://en.m.w
https://en.m.wikipedia.or
1. Second Strike Capability
Pakistan sure rattles her missiles a lot, but is very unlikely that they would consider a nuclear assault, tactical or strategic, on India because Pakistan knows that India has a serious second strike capability.
In nuclear strategy, a second-strike capability is a country's assured ability to respond to a nuclear attack with powerful nuclear retaliation against the attacker.
In layman terms it means that means that Even if Pakistan somehow does the impossible and destroys all Indian missile silos and Missile launch sites with a massive and accurate preemptive nuclear strike without Indian Fighter Jets first blowing their missiles to crap on the launchpad, India would still possess a formidable nuclear retaliation.
This primarily comes in the form of nuclear tipped - submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) .
Nuclear submarines are almost invisible once they dive in. They can stay underwater for months on end, making them invisible to aerial and satellite surveillance. They can carry powerful ballistic missiles armed with nuclear warheads. India's latest nuclear submarine The Arihant is all set to receive K-15 missiles which can carry nuclear warheads and strike up to 700 kms in enemy territory. We are also developing the K-4 missile which extends the attack radius to 3000 km bringing almost all the Pakistani cities under strike range. The Brahmos Supersonic Ramjet Cruise missile is being adapted to be used from a submerged platform. This will have a short range, but will be able to evade almost any missile defense system in existence due to it's massive speed in excess of Mach 2.8 . With the Brahmos in our Arsenal, we can strike fast before any defense can be conducted. We are developing a significantly faster version of this missile and tests will commence from 2017.
In case of a massive first strike by Pakistan, a nuclear submarine like Arihant can slip in near Pakistan silently and lay waste to Karachi and other cities. Pakistan imports lots of arms, ammunition and oil through Karachi, so a decisive strike on Karachi would totally cripple Pakistan and bring them to their knees. This was proved in 1971 after the Indian navy achieved Naval Superiority and Damaged the Karachi Port in the brilliant Operation Trident dealing a massive blow to Pakistan and ultimately was one of the major factors which brought them to the table to discuss terms.
We are also developing missiles which can be launched from the air and can carried by strike fighters or light bombers. In case of a nuclear attack by Pakistan, IAF aircraft operating from South or East India(Pakistani missiles effectively cover most of North India only) can easily strike and destroy Pakistani bases and cities. Longer Range standoff missiles are being developed which would give Our aircraft the ability to strike at Pakistani cities without crossing the border allowing them to strike without engaging the Pakistani Air defense. Basically Standoff missiles are the missiles or bombs which may be launched at a distance sufficient to allow attacking personnel to evade defensive fire from the target area. The Brahmos Cruise Missile is being adapted right now to be used by Aircraft. Traveling at supersonic speeds, it can evade Pakistani Defenses, if any with ease.
This combined with our nuclear submarines and missile silos completes a comprehensive nuclear triad of Defense. In case of a nuclear attack however small we can respond massively and effectively from land, air and sea, completely overwhelming the opponent's defenses and laying waste to their cities.
A nuclear assault by Pakistan may destroy some parts of India and kill all of her leaders, but the combined Indian counterstrike by the Navy, army and airforce would turn all of Pakistan into a boiling nuclear wasteland devoid of life. Indian Nuclear Policy states that India will never ever use it's Nuclear weapons to strike first. However any Nuclear assault however small on India from Pakistan would invite a complete nuclear response from our side which will wipe Pakistan off the map.
2. Ballistic Missile Shield
You also mention if there are any ways to protect India from a nuclear strike. The Indian Government for many years has been developing a Ballistic Missile Shield to counter the threats from China and Pakistan.
It is a double-tiered system consisting of two interceptor missiles, namely the Prithvi Air Defence missile for high altitude interception, and the Advanced Air Defence Missile for lower altitude interception. The two-tiered shield should be able to intercept any incoming missile launched 5,000 kilometres away.
Tests have been carried out and the Shield is quite effective. It is not yet operational but thanks to the successful tests it would be implemented soon.
Both missiles will have to work in tandem to achieve a high probability of knocking out the enemy missile. Most of Pakistan's missiles are pretty obsolete, so the Shield can effectively stop a lot of the Pakistani ballistic missiles with ease. Further Developments are being made and a new Prithvi Missile which is faster and reaches higher is in development. The US has also agreed to cooperate with India. The US has a very effective Missile defense Shield with the Patriot Interceptor Missile system. Hopefully the US will share some of the know how of Anti-Ballistic missiles with us helping us develop a even better Missile shield.
The DRDO may also look into a Laser based Missile shield developed by Israel called the Tactical High-Energy Laser, or THEL. The prototype weapon was roughly the size of six city buses, made up of modules that held a command center, radar and a telescope for tracking targets, the chemical laser itself, fuel and reagent tanks, and a rotating mirror to reflect its beam toward speeding targets. The Israeli Military has shot down several Katyusha Rockets using the Laser system.
The laser system will be more affordable than Interceptor missiles. A single Interceptor missile costs almost 5-6 crore. Also advanced smart missiles can evade Interceptors by confusing them with decoy missiles. To successfully strike a enemy missile down you need to first at least two long range interceptor missiles, in addition tobthis you need to keep a short range missile ready just in case, the other two fail. This adds up to a very high cost.
A laser system will consume electricity to fire and will be drastically cheaper at just probably Rs 5000 a shot. Also Lasers travel at the speed of light so countermeasures won't work that well against it. It will be slightly more expensive to build them, but their operating costs will be low and their effectiveness will be more with less reaction times.
3. UN Embargoes,Sanctions and Military Intervention
A Pakistani First strike will also invoke a UN embargo and Harsh Sanctions on Pakistan. Pakistan depends on the world market for most of it's oil and a embargo on Pakistan will lead to the Pakistani army being stopped dead on it's tracks. Also without food and other essential Imports, Public anger in Pakistan may lead to violent strikes, Mutinies and coups against the government in Power.
The UN may also consider a Full scale Military Intervention in Pakistan to stop any further attacks. The US is closer to India nowadays and they are frustrated with Pakistan being unable to act decisively on terrorist camps on it's soil. The US would jump at a chance to destroy these camps and would almost certainly intervene militarily. Pakistan would be crushed in a matter of days.
What about China?
China is anything but stupid. Supporting Pakistan to conduct a nuclear attack on India will result in a crisis of an unprecedented nature for China. To Understand better consider an analogy-
A Man commits the murder of an innocent man. You participate in it by encouraging him . The police would book you as an accomplice to murder and put you in the locker with the Murderer. You would lose all your reputation for your friend.
China here is the accomplice, Pakistan the Murderer, India the victim and the UN is the Police. They will book China as a Rogue state and cancel dealings with China and impose Sanctions. All the ASEAN Countries(Association of South East Asian Nations) will jump on the US bandwagon to throw out China from the World Economy. The Chinese Economy will be Blown to shreds. As Inflation increases over the falling Yuan, The Army would mutiny and Strikes would break out.
The ASEAN Countries
The West will suffer for a while without cheap Chinese goods but soon South Korea and the ASEAN Countries will take up the role of China . As China rots, The South east Asian countries Prosper hugely.
Also, a Nuclear war in it's neighborhood, will result in most of Western china being covered in Radioactive dust. Most people would have to be evacuated placing a huge toll on it's economy. It may also lead to a localized Nuclear Winter Situation, in which the Dust will Block out the Sun, resulting in Crops failing and Temperatures rapidly falling, resulting in a Harsh Cold Climate across most of China and South East Asia. This would be totally unacceptable for China at any cost.
Another Reason why China will not help Pakistan, is the Threat of Escalating a Local Nuclear war to a Global One. Basically this scenario will suck in bigger Powers like The US, NATO and Russia leading to an unpleasant domino effect and Start WW3. This is Exactly how WW1 started and such a situation is totally plausible, Only this Time with Nuclear weapons. This will Obviously lead to Doomsday and Armageddon for the entire world.
Due to these Reasons, I am Certain that China will stay out of the UN's way and will not support Pakistan. If Pakistan goes Rogue , I am Actually say with Confidence that China will back the UN.
History Suggests that in the murky world of Geopolitics "You are a friend only till you become a liability" .
Conclusion
I am certain of the fact that Pakistan's Generals know all about these scenarios and hence the only thing they can do is rattle their missiles in anger knowing that India would win both a conventional and a nuclear war. Hence I think it is quite Unlikely that Pakistan would choose to begin a nuclear war with India. Even if she does, God Forbid, India and the world will turn Pakistan into a barren wasteland straight out of a Mad Max Movie.
In short, They may start the war, but we shall end it.
References-https://en.m.w
https://en.m.wikipedia.or
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